The Console Cycle That Scorched Games-as-a-Service
For more than a quarter-century, game developers have aimed for ongoing gaming experiences. Early pioneers like Ultima Online transformed one-time buyers into long-term subscribers, igniting a period of copycats striving to emulate those results. Despite countless efforts, hardly any managed to overthrow the top dogs.
The pursuit for the upcoming long-lasting title intensified with the arrival of billion-dollar giants like Fortnite, many of which have dominated player engagement over many years. Their persistent dominance inspired developers to take enormous bets during the present console cycle.
Flush with capital and self-assurance, prominent studios like Square Enix sought to remake themselves as live-service providers, repeatedly overlooking their own identities. Such publishers are known for masterful offline titles, but that expertise failed to secure a smooth transition into the demanding world of online , forever-updated , in-game purchase-driven gaming experiences.
Starting from the release period of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, many of ambitious ongoing titles have come and gone. A lot have flamed out spectacularly, causing mass layoffs, game cancellations, and developer shutdowns. Following huge increases, followed risky bets, and aftermath that may represent a “correction” of the market, but also equates to the loss of thousands of roles.
How Did We Get Here?
Around 2017, leading companies like Ubisoft recognized live-service models as a significant focus for their businesses. A certain company's worth surged immensely during the previous decade, due largely to the profit system behind its yearly sports games. A rival firm saw comparable success, due to ongoing titles like Overwatch.
Also in that period, a prominent developer launched Fortnite, which quickly started bringing in hundreds of millions of currency monthly. Fortnite’s genre change netted the developer an estimated massive revenue in its first two years.
As the latest hardware hit the market, the American gaming industry rose from $45.1 billion in the prior year to nearly sixty billion in 2020, partly because of more purchases stemming from the worldwide lockdowns. In the next period, the American industry hit a record peak. Studios, striving to establish their place in the ongoing games sector, and supported by low interest rates, quickly expanded, hiring many thousands of new employees and approving titles — a large number live-service games. The consequences of such moves would have a lasting impact for a long time.
The Failures Came Quickly
One major publisher sought to replicate Destiny’s popularity with releases like Babylon’s Fall, both of which underperformed. Warner Bros. attempted to expand beyond its narrative , offline , and accessible titles with a ongoing experience, and an inspired brawler. Work has ended on each. Yet another publisher abandoned the persistent online game Hyenas after an extended period of development, before the game actually launched. Smaller studios sought to succeed in the GaaS space; multiple titles are also casualties of the GaaS risk. Their current financial woes can be blamed on the failure of an action game to convert users of a previous hit into live-service shooter fans.
Maybe the biggest gamble on live-service titles was made by a major hardware maker, which acquired Destiny creator Bungie for a huge amount and then announced plans to launch numerous GaaS titles by the deadline. That included a since-scrapped online title using a famous series, a reportedly canceled game based on another series, and the infamous the first-person shooter, which ceased operations and saw its whole team shuttered just a short time after launch.
Sony has since scaled down from that ambitious plan, focusing on its fan base with the high-quality story-driven games it's known for, like Ghost of Yotei. The future of announced live-service games like one upcoming title remains unclear. Their future risky project, the new title, will be a major test for the troubled developer.
What Caused the Failures?
One key factor is that many consumers have already invested immensely, both in time and money, into proven hits like Call of Duty. The competition for the forever game, for a lot of gamers, was effectively over in the last hardware era. Many of those long-running hits still lead engagement rankings across PC, Nintendo, PlayStation, and Xbox consoles.
New Breakthroughs
A few later live-service titles have succeeded. A leading studio is achieving good numbers with both Battlefield 6, releases that have been carefully refined and influenced by the dedicated fans behind them. Another publisher gained popularity with Marvel Rivals, combining a love with Marvel’s brand and the proven mechanics of a popular shooter. The publisher and a developer succeeded with Helldivers 2, using a mix of smooth controls and smart community engagement.
Numerous developers seem to have understood the reality: There’s only so much resources and attention to {
