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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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