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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still