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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.